Panel H — Synthesis
DETERMINISTIC · NO LLMCurrent Regime
MIXED
Bull signals firing (3 bull / 1 bear) but BTC < 200d SMA + slope falling — downtrend gate downgrades to MIXED. Counter-trend bounces; structural bullish reentry needs trend confirmation.
67/100
Bull Score
Bullish
↑ +25 14d
Bullish3
Bearish1
Neutral0
Macro bias-9
★ Tier S firing↑2 bullish
Signals
(4)- On-chain★ Tier SBTC MVRV-Z -1.00 — discount to historical cost basis
- Sentiment★ Tier SF&G 24 + BTC MVRV-Z -1.00 — fear + on-chain discount, capitulation setup
- LiquidityProvisionalStablecoin supply contracting — capital exiting crypto
- Options25Δ skew -14.1 — heavy put premium, downside fear pricing in (contrarian bullish if it persists)
Precursor signals
— leading indicators — present before major moves with near-zero false positives on the opposite side- Pre-decline precursorfires before 28% of major downs · 0% on oppositeStablecoin supply contracting — capital exiting crypto
Divergences
— signals disagree — often the highest-conviction setups- On-chain says BTC is cheap (MVRV-Z negative) but options positioning is complacent (P/C low) — sentiment divergence: smart money may be early.
- Options skew shows downside fear yet on-chain cost basis is at discount — historically a contrarian buy signal.
Per-asset bias
BTC
daily EMA stack down · 4h MACD negative
-9Mild short
ETH
daily EMA stack down · 4h MACD negative
-12Mild short
AIOT
daily EMA stack down · 4h MACD negative
-11Mild short
Gold
daily EMA stack down · 4h MACD negative
+0Neutral
Oil
4h MACD positive
+0Neutral
Upcoming catalysts
- JOBLESSJul 9 · 3d
- CPIJul 14 · 8d
- JOBLESSJul 16 · 10d
What would invalidate this view
- ▸Break of either side of recent range with composite signal confirming
- ▸Major macro surprise (FOMC, CPI) shifts the regime
Panel A — Technicals Grid
RSI · MACD · EMA stack — heat (red) / cool (green)
| Asset | Price | 15m | 1h | 4h | 1d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 63,163.79 | 49.2· + | 52.4↑ − | 60.8· − | 49.8↓ + |
| ETH | 1,775.94 | 49.1· + | 50.0↑ − | 63.4· − | 56.3↓ + |
| AIOT | 0.0547 | 44.6· + | 47.3· − | 51.1· − | 45.6↓ + |
| Gold | 4,155.12 | 43.8↓ + | 38.7↑ − | 54.0· − | 47.9↓ + |
| Oil | 103.98 | 56.4↓ + | 42.8↓ + | 32.1↓ + | 30.4· − |
↑/↓ = EMA20/50/200 stack direction · +/− = MACD histogram sign
Panel D — Composite Signal
RSI 40% · EMA stack 30% · MACD 15% · macro 15%
Macro Context Bias-4
BTC
-8Mild short
RSI-14EMA-22MACD+32Macro-4
ETH
-11Mild short
RSI-24EMA-22MACD+41Macro-4
AIOT
-11Mild short
RSI+7EMA-44MACD+3Macro-4
Gold
+1Neutral
RSI+7EMA-22MACD+34Macro-4
Oil
+1Neutral
RSI+54EMA-56MACD-22Macro-4
Tweet sentiment slot reserved for Phase 2 (weight 0%)
Panel C — Cross-Asset Snapshot
Rates · vol · equity · stables · perp OI
| Metric | Value | 30d | 24h Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Real Yield | 2.25% | +5bp | |
| HY Spread (OAS) | 2.75% | +1bp | |
| Bond Vol (TLT RV) | 10.5% | -10bp | |
| SPX (SPY) | 744.84 | +0.64% | |
| NDX (QQQ) | 712.74 | -1.42% | |
| Stablecoin Mcap | 257B | -0.02% | |
| BTC Perp OI | 7B | -1.67% | |
| ETH Perp OI | 4B | +1.71% |
Panel G — On-Chain
CoinMetrics · MVRV 4y Z-score · exchange flows
BTC
| BTC MVRV | 1.20 | +0.97% | |
| BTC MVRV Z-Score | -1.00 | Discount | |
| BTC Netflow 24h | -4,231 | Inflow | |
| BTC Exchange Supply | 2,663,007 | +0.45% | |
| BTC Active Addresses | 501,335 | -21.65% |
ETH
| ETH MVRV | 0.90 | +7.58% | |
| ETH MVRV Z-Score | -1.24 | Discount | |
| ETH Netflow 24h | +4,795 | Outflow | |
| ETH Exchange Supply | 16,387,069 | -0.55% | |
| ETH Active Addresses | 872,655 | -2.50% |
MVRV Z zones: < -1.5 deep value · -1.5 to -0.5 discount · -0.5 to +2 neutral · > +2 hot · > +4 euphoria
Panel I — Positioning & Flows
Funding · dominance · sentiment · liquidations · ETF flows
Perp Funding (Binance)
BTC perp
+8.4% APR
7d avg +8.1%
ETH perp
+9.1% APR
7d avg +6.0%
Market Rotation
| BTC dominance | 55.73% | |
| ETH dominance | 9.43% | |
| ETH/BTC mcap | 0.1692 |
Sentiment
Fear & Greed
24Extreme Fear
Liquidations · 24h
BTC
Longs0.0M
Shorts0.0M
ETH
Longs0.0M
Shorts0.0M
Cumulative since panel-start; streamer aggregates ongoing
Spot ETF Net Flows · Daily
| BTC ETFs | awaiting source |
| ETH ETFs | awaiting source |
Panel F — BTC Options
Deribit · implied vol · positioning · max pain (~85% of BTC option flow)
| Metric | Value | 24h Δ |
|---|---|---|
| DVOL (Implied Vol) | 38.7 | -6.16% |
| Total OI | 22B | +0.76% |
| Put/Call (OI) | 0.55 | -1.06% |
| Put/Call (Vol 24h) | 0.82 | +46.49% |
| 25Δ Skew | -14.1 | +92bp |
Max Pain Candidates (top 3 by OI)
| Expiry | Max Pain | OI | In |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 26 | $64,000 | 6B | 25d |
| Sep 25, 26 | $72,000 | 6B | 81d |
| Dec 25, 26 | $72,000 | 6B | 172d |
Panel B — Macro Calendar
Upcoming releases · recent actual vs consensus
Next 21 days
| Jobless Claims | Jul 9 | 3d 4h |
| CPI | Jul 14 | 8d 4h |
| Jobless Claims | Jul 16 | 10d 4h |
| Jobless Claims | Jul 23 | 17d 4h |
Recent releases (14d)
| Event | Date | Actual | Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFP / Employment | Jul 2 | — | — |
| Jobless Claims | Jul 2 | — | — |
| Jobless Claims | Jun 26 | — | — |
| PCE | Jun 25 | — | — |
| Jobless Claims | Jun 25 | — | — |
| Jobless Claims | Jun 22 | — | — |
Alerts (recent)
Auto-checked every 5 min · de-duped 4h per kind/symbol/tf
- MACD ↑BTC15m08:30 AM
- MACD ↓BTC1h06:30 AM
- RSI OversoldGold1h05:30 AM
- MACD ↓AIOT1h05:30 AM
- MACD ↓ETH1h04:30 AM
- MACD ↓Gold1h03:30 AM
- MACD ↓Gold15m12:30 AM
- MACD ↑AIOT4h12:30 AM
- MACD ↓AIOT15m12:30 AM
- MACD ↑BTC4h11:30 PM
Panel E — Live Tweet Feed
Phase 2Curated X accounts (Tier A / B / C) — deferred to Phase 2
Reserved layout slot — populated when X ingestion ships.